October 2013 | Pengembang Investasi FOREX

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Thursday, October 31

SP500 Futures Weekly, Daily & H4 Analysys

Please click on the link here:
http://www.day-trader.pl/analizy/indeksy/1385-sp500-d1-w1-m1

Thank You,
Seb

APPLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily & H4 Analysys

Please click on the link here:
http://www.day-trader.pl/analizy/akcje/1387-apple-m1-w1-d1-h4-30-10-2013

Thank You,
Seb

Wednesday, October 30

Facebook $FB H1 Analysys

Please follow the link here:
http://day-trader.pl/analizy/akcje/1386-facebook-h1-30-10-2013

Thank You,
Seb

Tuesday, October 29

General Overview for 29/10/2013 11:00 CET
I have a little re-labeled the count showing now fully developed wave iii black.
Current situation looks like one of two scenarios:
SCENARIO 1: Main Count - Wave iv is done and wave v is done as well ( Ending Diagonal). Wave (i) is down in full five swings to the upside so now it is correction time in shape of a ZigZag (???). Key Level is $1309 - 1300 zone. Price should finish the correction there and resume the uptrend.
SCENARIO 2: Alternate Count - Wave iv is not done and the whole up move in last days was a choppy wave alt:b. Next anticipated wave progression would be waves c,d,e for a Triangle wave iv to complete. The Key Level for this scenario is $1327 as a wave 4 support.

Support/Resistance:
1420 - WR3
1388 - WR2
1374 - WR1 | SUPPLY ZONE |
1363 - 61%Fibo
1341 - Weekly Pivot
1328 - WS1
1327 - Technical Support | Previous Wave iv area |
1309 - Key Level
1296 - WS2
1283 - WS3

Trading Recommedations:
For a longer term swing trade buying the 1327 - 1309 zone with SL just below 1300 is recomended.
Target is 1487 - 1506 zone.

EUR/USD H1

Please click in the link here:
http://blog.mt5.com/elliottfxtrader/2013/10/28/eur-usd-h1-7/

Thank You,
Seb

Wednesday, October 23

AUD/USD H4

AUDUSD H4:
Five impulsive waves to the upside has been done and this pair should start some kind of corrective cycle. First clue that this count is right is further downside movement when brown and yellow channels bre broken. First target is 0.9529.

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EUR/USD Weekly,Daily, H4 & H1 Analysys

Please click on the link here:
http://blog.mt5.com/elliottfxtrader/2013/10/22/eur-usd-weekly-daily-h4-and-h1-analysys/
Thank You,
Seb

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� feeling determined.

Saturday, October 19

Gold XAUUSD H4 & Daily Analysys

Please click on the link here:

http://blog.mt5.com/elliottfxtrader/2013/10/18/gold-h4-amp-daily/

THX,
Seb

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Friday, October 18

Nifty H1

General Overview for 18/20/2013:

The corrective wave 2 purple must has been finished sonner that I have expected and Nifty index had made a new high now.
Nevertheless, the overall momentum for wave (i) is diminishing now and soe sort of correction is needed. The Key Level for the corrective cycle bottom is 5900. If this level is broken, then price might test the GAP level and oveall correction will become more complex.

Support/Resistance:
6275 - WR1
6065 - Weekly Pivot
5986 - WS1
5900 - Key Lecvel
5775 - WS1
5696 - WS3

Seb

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GBP/USD H1

Please click th link here:
http://blog.mt5.com/elliottfxtrader/2013/10/18/gbp-usd-h1-3/

Thanks,
Seb

Thursday, October 17

EUR/USD H1,H4,Daily & Weekly Video Analysys

Hi guys,

Due to main count invalidation this is video analysys of EUR/USD and US Dollar Index
The video is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RV7rDvkesUY

Enjoy!
Sebastian Seliga

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Wednesday, October 16

EUR/USD H1

EURUSD H1 16/10/2013:

This is the third and last one sequence of (i)-(ii), (1)-(2), i-ii that I can accept without invalidating bearish impulsive scenatio.

Any breakout above INVALIDATION LINE is bullish and last swing high is prone to test.

USD/CHF H4

Please click on the link here:
http://blog.mt5.com/elliottfxtrader/2013/10/15/usd-chf-h4/

Thank You,
Seb

Tuesday, October 15

Guest Article:Why the Markets Remain Hostage to the U.S. Government Shut-down?

Why the Markets Remain Hostage to the U.S. Government Shut

As the government shut-down enters its third week, its impact is already creating widespread uncertainty and concern among U.S. citizens. Economists are predicting that the influence of the shut-down is set to become even stronger in the coming weeks, however, as government funding continues to dwindle indefinitely.

So while the federal courts are currently still functioning and benefits payments are still being made, it is estimated that the existing resources will only allow this to continue for another 2 to 3 weeks. After this time, the U.S. will face defaulting on its budget deficit and entering a prolonged period of austerity.

The Government Shut-down and the Forex Market: The Ultimate Stalemate

As the Washington stalemate continues, the financial markets are also beginning to feel the effect. This is only to be expected, especially in volatile markets that remain susceptible to social, political and economic trends. Take the forex market, for example, which has already seen diminished trading volumes and a distinctly risk averse approach to investment since the shut-down began just 13 days ago. The latest development in the crisis only served to heighten the sense of dread and anxiety, as President Obama reportedly refused to deal directly with the Republicans in an attempt to resolve the stalemate at the end of next week.

While some may remember how the threat of the fiscal cliff failed to undermine the financial markets, it is important to note that the current circumstances are entirely different. To begin with, the majority of the nations' economists felt that it was extremely unlikely that the U.S. would be allowed to plunge into the oblivion, while those on Wall Street were already battle hardened in the wake of the Great Recession. We are already in the midst of a government shut-down in this instance, however, while the nation had recently experienced significant levels of growth and regeneration.

The Early Indicators and the Bottom Line for Forex Traders

So with the financial markets in the grip of an impending fiscal crisis and a resolution seemingly further away than ever, are there any immediate signs of danger on the foreign exchange? Well the U.S. Dollar (USD) has followed up weeks of constant price fluctuation by dropping sharply against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The initial uncertainty surrounding the government shut-down also appeared to take its toll on trading volumes, with the forex market decidedly quiet as investors sought further news concerning negotiations between the White House and Democratic party members.

While austerity, uncertainty and speculation are common features of the contemporary forex market, traders are currently facing a unique set of fiscal circumstances. Gripped by the first government shut-down in more than 17 years and hindered by an increasingly fragile global economy, it is little wonder that they are looking to adopt a risk averse approach and consolidate their position until a resolution is released. With many following the latest news and breaking trends through online brokerage firms such as Alpari, the sense of anticipation on the market is set to reach a peak in the week ahead.

Adrew Scarre

Monday, October 14

Crude Oil Futures H4

Last wave (iii) green has been finished with Ending Diagonal Wave (v) and now crude oil is in corrective cycle. More whipsaws and choopy price action should be expected as the most probabble pattern for this wave is a triangle. Range is 104.33 - 101.05 and only a breakout above the golden descending trend line would put the count into question.

EUR/USD H4

EUR/USD H4 Analysys:

THE BEARS LAST CHANCE COUNT: if 1.3606 level ( top of wave 2 ) is broken, then alternative count is in play. This alternative count indicates another last high test and very possible breakout to the BLUE LINE @ 1.3706. If this line is broken then whole bearish count is invalidated and next level to look for a meaningfull resistance for EUR/USD is 1.4500.

1.3706 IS LINE IN THE SAND FOR BEARS!!!

Friday, October 11

Thursday, October 10

WIG20 Futures H4

Poprzedni wpis o indeksie znajduje sie tutaj:
http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2013/09/wig20-h4-futures.html

Wskazywalem w nim na mozliwosc odbicia od poziomu 78%Fibo po zakonczonej korekcie fali (ii) zielonej, na co dodatkowo wskazywal tza: Stopping Volume.

Na chwile obecna licznik przedstawia sie nastepujaco: strefa SUPPLY na poziomie 2486 - 2504 stanowi relatwynie mocna bariere cenowa i w zasadzie dopiero jej wybicie bedzie potwierdzeniem dalszych wzrost�w. Uwaga na falszywe wybicie (fakey bars and setups).

Powodzenia,
Seb

Nifty H1

NSE Nifty H1 Update om 10/10/2013:

Choppy and overlaping price action indicates that wave (b) is still in progress and now level of 78%Fibo is the one to be focused on:

-if broken, then there is a high chance golden trend line might be tested.

0 if rejected, then a possible sell of might happen to the levels indicated on chart.

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EUR/USD H1

There is still one more wave to the downside missing here: wave (v).
So, according to this count there is a sell zone of 1.3527 - 1.3537 and SL order can be place just above this zone because in case of a upper breakout the main count is invalidated and alternate black count is in play. This alternate count indicates deeper correction in wave alt:(2). First possible level to finish it is Weekly Pivot level @ 1.3562.

Take care,
Seb

Wednesday, October 9

Nikkei 225 Futures Daily 09/10/2013

The upside triangle breakout is almost here as the price is currently trading between 61.8 and 68.5 percent of whole triangle length. This is statistically the most often upside breakout point.
As long as green trend line holds bias is upside.

Take care,
Seb

GBP/USD H1 09/10/2013

There are still some waves to the downside left, just as per chart.

1.6014 should hold and it looks like a good level to load even more shorts.

Target levels are 1.5904 and if this one is broken then 1.5878.
Please notice that there is still possible upside wave development on this point in time.

Take care,
Seb

Tuesday, October 8

USD/JPY H4 & Daily Analysys

On Daily time frame main count and two different alternate counts are present:
Main count shows that wave 1 blue circle is done and now it is correction time that might be in shape of (W)(X)(Y) Correction and the projected level would be 90.81 - 91.00 for the bottom of wave 2 blue circle. The alternate version of this scenario is slighty different: wave 2 blue circle is already done (instead of wave (W)) and now first wave to the upside is present ( alt:1) and corrective cycle waves ABC might have bottomed on 96.65 level as the low of wave alt:2.
Second interpretation is all about the top for wave (X), that looks like a either ABC OR Triangle itself. The last wave of the Triangle has not been finished yet and the potential level for this wave is around 100 mark. Then sell off in wave (Y) is expected.
Last one possible count points out that the top of wave 1 blue circle is really wave alt:3 high and this whole overlaping & time consuming structure is really wave 4 Triangle of the higher degree.

Judging by the lower time frame wave development and momentum analysys we can observe that on H4 chart AO oscilator is pointing out a multiple Bullish Divergence so some kind of relief rally OR even a new wave up should be anticipated.
Bullish wedge on H4 chart seems to support this view.

Good luck,
Seb

SP500 H4 Analysys

Please click on the link here:
http://blog.mt5.com/elliottfxtrader/2013/10/07/sp500-h4-07-10-2013/

Thnak You,
Seb

Sunday, October 6

NSE Nifty Daily & H4 Elliott Wave Analysys

General Overview for 06/10/2013

I am looking at a larger term picture of Nifty. While at this stage it appears that several alternatives are present, I am giving the highest weight to the count I have attached here.

Lok at the Daily chart below and You will see that this index in a large bull market that one can label as an impulsive wave. End of the rally on 2008 is the top for wave 3 ( with fifth wave extension of a wave (5)) and then price has made a sharp decline slighty below the low of wave (4) which is typical after wave (5) extension. After sharp decline price has made another five waves to the upside and almost took out the high of wave 3. Overall the five wave structure of a higher degree has been finished (labeled as wave i and now price is in corrective decline. The first wave down of the decline has been made ( wave A) and now price is about to finish wave B of the upward smaller corrective cycle. Because it can be clearly seen that this AB structure is an overlaping and time consuming THREE waves correction, my speculation is, that apossible shape of wave ii will be in ABC Irregular Flat shape. So now I'm waiting for wave B to the upside to finish and then five wave sell-off in wave C of wave ii.

On the lower time frames there is a possibble low in wave (B) of ann extended (A)(B)(C) Irregular Flat pattern. The top of this pattern will be the top of wave B and then sell-off should happen

On even lower time frame (H4), one can see that first five impulsive waves to the upside has been done and now market is in corrective cycle wave 2. The most probabble pattern for this simple correction is ZigZag and if 61%Fibo is the top for wave (b), then equall legs target for wave (a)=(c) is indicated on chart. Nevertheless, there is another possible wave progression that include depper retracement in wave (b) up to 78.6Fibo level and thn small sell-off in wave (c). This would mean the GAP zone of orange rectangel will not be broken and reversal should be expected sooner.

Support/Resistance:

6233- Swing High

6174 - Wave 1 high

6085 - purple 78%Fibo

6020 - purple 61%Fibo

5763 - Technical Support | GAP HIGH LEVEL |

5700 - GAP LOW LEVEL

5662 - One2One Equall Legs target #1 for wave (c)

5637 - 50%Fibo | Target#2 for wave (c)

5511 - 61%Fibo

Trading Recommendations:
Bullish outlook for this market is evident in wave progression so long positions should be in play once the correction is over.
The target for the wave B is
- 6682 - 6748 if B is 23.6%Extension of Irregular Flat
-7004 - 7118 if B is 38.6% Extension of Irregular Flat.

Friday, October 4

EUR/USD H4

EUR/USD H4:
A possible Ending Diagonal Wave 5 is about to be finished here. Overthrow in fifth wave is very common and this one occured into Fibo Cluster ( quite wilde) area of orange rectangle.
Only a new high above 1.3642 would put the 1.3710 previous swing high level into exposure and possible breakout.
Please notice that momentum indicator AO oscillator shows Bearish Divergence on H4 TF and this is supporting the end of the cycle view. To further confirm this view price must break out to the downside from navt triangle area ( Ending Diagonal). Grey rectangle zone is the first one that is likley to provide the support.

Seb